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Introduction This
document summarizes the Residential and Commercial Buildable Land
Inventory analysis for Dunes City Urban Growth Boundary. It addresses
State Planning Goal 10, “To provide for the housing needs of citizens of
the state.” Goal 10 and its administrative rules set out a process to
estimate future housing needs and to analyze the supply and demand for
residential land needed to accommodate future growth. Cities are required
to provide a 20 year supply of residential and within their UGB at
periodic review and legislative review, based on housing needs assessment. This
document addresses commercial land as far as updating the existing
inventory. The focus of this document updates contains a housing needs
analysis, an analysis of existing buildable land and a comparison of the
supply of buildable residential land with forecasted housing demand. The
housing need analysis forecasts housing demand to 2025. The supply
analysis is based on buildable land as of 2005. In reviewing the future
needs for land and the current supply within the urban growth boundary, it
has been determined that there is not a 20-year supply of buildable
residential land. Buildable Lands Inventory Introduction The
future land needs of a community are determined by comparing the existing
supply of land with the expected demand.
This chapter summarizes the methodology, assumptions, and results
of ·
It helps determine the quantity and
quality of vacant lands, ·
It helps identify how actual
development patterns have been occurring, and ·
It helps determine the capacity of the
UGB to accommodate residential and job growth. The
City of Dunes City has four plan designations.
The plan designations and associated zoning includes: ·
Commercial: Intended to provide
convenience goods, personal services, and commercial goods to support the
local economy and provide tourist commercial services. Accessible to ·
Residential: Intended to provide a variety
of housing opportunities to meet housing needs. Single family units on 1
acre lots or larger; PUDS, including a variety of housing types and
neighborhood commercial; Land already subdivided with lots smaller than
one acre; Two-to-four family units, mobile homes and manufactured housing.
·
Open Space Lands:
Those lands not suited for development because of natural development
constraints or publicly owned lands designated as open space. ·
Public: Public and quasi public land,
including part of the Boy Scout camp, state and county parks, and city
facilities. Public Involvement The methodology and assumptions
for the Buildable Lands Inventory were reviewed by the Citizen Advisory
Committee (CAC). A few adjustments were made to the original assumptions
based on development trends. The Planning Commission reviewed the document
and …..(will update after
review). Description of Methodology and Inventory Results There
are some differences in the way residential and commercial lands were
handled in the inventory process. These
differences are described in the methodology.
There are five general steps in the process that were used to
estimate the amount of buildable land in ·
Update the land use and zoning in the
computer geographic information system (GIS) ·
Determine gross vacant acres, including
whole or partial tax lots ·
Determine constrained and unbuildable
land ·
Determine percentage of acres needed
for public facilities ·
Determine residential infill potential ·
Determine redevelopment potential STEP 1
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|
Plan Designation |
Vacant Acres |
% of Total Vacant |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial |
5.2 |
0.6% |
|
Open
Space |
141.6 |
15.9% |
|
Residential |
719.1 |
83.5% |
|
TOTAL |
865.8 |
100.0% |
Gross vacant acres
represent 59% of all land within Dunes City UGB.
Over 83% of
Unbuildable
Lands
Size:
There
are some parcels in the data file that are too small to be developed.
In most cases, these are “slivers” of land that result from
data layers that do not match exactly.
For example, some plan designations may overlap onto a tiny portion
of an adjacent tax lot of a different plan designation.
That overlapping piece will show up as a tiny parcel.
About 3.5 vacant
acres are parcels that are too small to be developed.
These lands are considered unbuildable and were subtracted from
the inventory – this represents less than 1% of the total vacant land.
Floodways: The Flood Insurance Rate Map
designates regulated floodways. There
were no areas identified within a floodway within
The
following table summarizes the impact of the unbuildable lands on the
inventory.
Unbuildable
Vacant Acres by Plan Designation
|
Plan
Designation |
Too |
% of Total Vacant |
|
Commercial |
.20 |
>.01% |
|
Open Space |
.20 |
>.01% |
|
Residential |
3.20 |
.3% |
|
TOTAL |
3.50 |
|
Constrained
Lands
The following describes how
constraints were handled in the Buildable Lands Inventory:
The constraints identified
for this study were:
Acres of constrained
land include the total acres of all land containing any of the constraints
identified. An area can include a single constraint or a combination of
many constraints overlapping. Therefore, individual constrained land will
not equal the sum of each individual constraint and its acres. Total acres
where only one constraint was identified and the constraint's impact on
the supply is discussed below.
Gross Vacant Acres
of Constrained land totals 410.7 acres -this represents 47% of the
vacant land in
Flood Hazards: The Flood Insurance
Rate Map designates areas subject to a 1% or 100-year flood.
This constraint had
a slight impact on the buildable lands inventory since land in the flood
plain can be developed at the same density as land outside the
floodplain.
Ř
Wetlands: The Local Wetland
Inventory completed in 2004 was used to determine the vacant land in the
Dunes City UGB that falls within delineated
wetlands. Wetlands overlap
with several of the constraints identified such as riparian area and 100
year flood zone –this accounted for 99 acres and wetlands on their own
totaled 13 acres. In total there are 112 vacant acres with delineated
wetlands.
It is assumed that
land in delineated wetlands will not be developed. All land containing
delineated wetlands was removed from the inventor –this accounted for
13 acres
Ř
Slope: Vacant land with
slopes over16% was identified as a constraint to development. Development
on slopes greater than 16% is permitted in
Sloped land has the
largest impact on the vacant land inventory. Approximately 27% of all
vacant land contains slopes over 16%. Of the sloped only land, 40% or 75
acres was subtracted from the inventory.
Availability
of Services:
Constrained
Vacant Acres by Plan Designation
|
|
|
Constrained:
Slope >16%, Riparian Area, Wetlands and Flood Hazard |
||||
|
Plan
Designation |
Gross
Vacant Acres |
Constrained
Acres |
Flood
Hazard Only |
**
ADD 60 % of Sloped Only Land to Inventory |
TOTAL
Constrained Acres |
Percent
of Vacant Land w/in Plan Designation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial |
5.2 |
1.7 |
1 |
0.0 |
1.7 |
33% |
|
Open Space |
141.6 |
132.6 |
12 |
9.8 |
122.9 |
87% |
|
Residential |
743.6 |
276.3 |
9 |
111.8 |
164.6 |
22% |
|
TOTAL |
890.4 |
410.7 |
22 |
121.5 |
289.1 |
|
NOTES: The percentages represent the percent
of constrained vacant land within that plan designation.
For example, 22% of the vacant Residential land is constrained.
The
following table summarizes the gross vacant buildable acres.
In total, approximately 289 acres were subtracted from the
inventory to account for unbuildable lands and to address development
constraint assumptions.
|
|
|
Constrained
Land |
|
|||
|
Plan
Designation |
Acres |
Gross
Constrained Acres |
**
ADD 60 % of |
Add
Flood Hazard Only Back into Inventory |
TOTAL
Net Constrained Acres |
Gross
Buildable Acres |
|
Commercial |
5.0 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
3.3 |
|
Open
Space |
141.4 |
132.6 |
9.8 |
12.0 |
110.9 |
30.6 |
|
Residential |
715.9 |
276.3 |
111.8 |
9.0 |
155.6 |
428.3 |
|
TOTAL
|
862.4 |
410.7 |
121.5 |
22.0 |
267.1 |
462.2 |
Ř
Approximately 132
acres were removed from the gross vacant buildable acreages to account
for public facilities and non-residential uses on residential land.
Ř
Approximately 0 acre
was removed from gross vacant buildable acreages for public facilities
on commercial and industrial land.
In total, 132 acres were
subtracted from the inventory to account for public facilities and
non-residential uses. The
following table summarizes the differences between gross and net acres for
each plan designation.
Net
Buildable Acres by Plan Designation
|
|
|
Constrained
Land |
|
|
|
|||
|
Plan
Designation |
Gross Acres |
Gross
Constrained Acres |
**
ADD 60 % of |
Add
Flood Hazard Only Back into Inventory |
TOTAL
Net Constrained Acres |
Gross
Buildable Acres |
Acres
for Public Facilities |
Net
Buildable Acres |
|
Commercial |
5.0 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
4.3 |
0 |
4.3 |
|
Open
Space |
141.4 |
132.6 |
9.8 |
12.0 |
110.9 |
30.6 |
|
30.6 |
|
Residential |
715.9 |
276.3 |
111.8 |
9.0 |
155.6 |
560.3 |
132 |
428.3 |
|
TOTAL
|
862.4 |
410.7 |
121.5 |
22.0 |
267.1 |
595.2 |
132 |
463.2 |
Residential
infill can occur when a lot with a single-family residence may be large
enough to divide, creating one or more new lots.
This second process is called a partition if three or fewer lots
are created out of the original lot; a subdivision if four or more lots
are created. This analysis
focuses on infill occurring through the land division process.
To
determine the potential for infill, the number of lots on which
partitioning or subdividing could occur were identified from the 2005
To
develop an assumption as to how many infill lots will be created in the 20
year period, partition activity was reviewed between 1998 and 2000.
During that period, there were seventeen approved partitions on
residential tax lots an acre or more in size.
These partitions created 24 new lots.
There was an average of 4 new lots created per year.
If this historical trend were projected into the future, there
would be approximately 60 additional buildable lots created through the
infill process in the coming 20 years. However, only 11 lots exist with
the potential to create 12 new 1-acre lots through the partition process.
It is unlikely that all of the potential lots will be partitioned. Some
lots may contain houses on lots greater than 2 acres where the house is in
the middle of the lot which would prohibit a partition since the minimum
1-acre lot size could not be met.
Residential
Infill Potential
|
Number
of Lots with Potential |
Total
Acres |
Potential
Number of New Lots |
Expected
Number |
|
11 |
26.7 |
12 |
5 |
For
this buildable land analysis, it is assumed that 5 additional lots will
be created in the coming 20 years, which will meet the housing demand
for 5 single-family detached dwellings.
STEP 6 Determine
Redevelopment Potential
In
The CAC thought
redevelopment would most likely occur on existing mobile home lots. All
mobile home lots in
Ř
·
Improvement
value less than land value. If the improvement value
(value of buildings and other improvements) is less than the land value,
this would indicate a potential for redevelopment.
Redevelopment
potential was discussed with the CAC.
There were 9 acres were identified where the value of the land was
at least two times greater than the improvement value of the property or
where the improvement to land value ratio was .49 or less.
For
the purposes of this analysis, up to 25% of the redevelopment potential on
commercial land is expected to be realized in the 20-year timeframe.
This equals approximately 2.25 acres.
Projected
Housing Needs
Introduction
To
project future housing demand, it is necessary to project the demand for a
forecasted population. Housing demand was projected by reviewing and
making assumptions about the trends in population, average household size,
group quarter population, structure type mix, vacancy, tenure and
household income.
Population Projections
2000-2025
Population Projections
Since 1990
|
Year |
Population |
|
1965 |
629 |
|
1970 |
976 |
|
1980 |
1124 |
|
1990 |
1081 |
|
2000 |
1241 |
|
2004*
(estimate) |
1300 |
|
2025** |
1800 |
*
Estimated Population
**
Forecasted Population
Source:
US
Recent Housing Construction By Type and Density
The Citizen Advisory Committee
followed the steps outlined in the workbook, “Planning for Residential
Growth,” to determine recent housing construction by type and density.
This section compares these data to data on needed housing and density to
see if housing measures are required. The following steps were taken to
determine actual type and density of recent housing construction in order
to use these data in subsequent planning for residential growth.
Step
1 Determine Time Period
Step
2 Identify Types of Housing to
Address
The Citizen Advisory Committee
addressed the existing housing types in
Step
3 Collect Data
LCOG
worked with
Step
4 Calculate the Mix of Housing
Types
The predominant housing type
recently constructed in
|
New
Residential Construction 1998-2004 |
||
|
Housing Type |
Units |
Percent of Units |
|
Single
Family Detached |
68 |
80% |
|
Mfd
Home on |
17 |
20% |
|
Mfd
Home in Park |
0 |
0% |
|
Duplex |
0 |
0% |
|
Total |
85 |
100% |
|
Source:
|
||
Step
5 Calculate the average density
of each housing unit type and the average actual net density of all
housing units.
The single family homes that
were added to the housing stock were built at an average of .48 homes per
acre or one home for every 2 acres. Manufactured homes on lots were built
at a higher density at .61 dwelling units per acre.
|
Net
Density of Residential Units Built 1998-2004 |
|||
|
Housing Type |
#
Units |
Number
of Acres |
Density
(units per acre) |
|
Single Family Detached |
|
|
|
|
Stick
Built |
68 |
148.26 |
0.46 |
|
Manufactured
Dwellings |
17 |
28.09 |
0.61 |
|
TOTAL |
85 |
176.35 |
0.48 |
|
Source: |
|||
housing need projections
This section analyzes
·
Project the number of new housing units
needed in the next 20 years
·
Project the housing mix needed in the
next twenty years
·
Estimate the number of additional
housing units needed by type
·
Estimate the expected net density
STEP 1
Project the number of new housing units needed in the next 20
years.
The
population projections for 2025 were described earlier in this chapter.
The methodology for converting population to housing units is
described below.
Number
of Households
To
determine the number of households requiring individual housing in 2025,
the number of persons in group quarter facilities and a projected average
person per household must be determined.
Group
Quarters
Group
quarters include facilities such as assisted living facilities,
dormitories, correctional institutions, group homes, boarding houses,
military facilities, juvenile institutions, and psychiatric hospitals.
The 2000 Census indicates that there are no group quarter
facilities in
Average
household size has been declining both nationally and locally over the
past 30 years and is expected to continue to decline.
The cause of the decline in household size is due to a variety of
factors including lower fertility rates, increased divorce rate, and
delayed marriages. During the
1990s, the baby boom generation, which constitutes a large proportion of
the population, is at the highest household formation ages.
As the baby boom generation ages, they will move into ages that
typically have smaller household size.
Census
data indicates the average household size in
For
this analysis, it is assumed that average household size will continue to
decline. IF the average household size continued to decline at a rate of
3.5% in 2005 the average household size is 2.14 persons per household.
However, the CAC felt this number was not accurate. Based on available
data the average household size for 2005 is 1.89 persons per household.
This figure was arrived at my taking the coordinated population estimate
for 2004 of 1300 divided by the total number of housing units of 859 as of
December 31, 2004 times an occupancy rate of 80%. If a 3.5% change were
applied until the year 2025, the average household size would be 1.64 in
the year 2025.
1300 (PSU estimated population) / 681
(occupied housing units) = 1.89 average household size
It
is likely the average household size would be significantly lower in
Household
size is inversely proportional to housing unit demand – the smaller the
household size, the higher the number of housing units will be needed to
house a given population.
|
Average
Household Size |
|
|||||
|
1980
- 2000 |
|
|||||
|
|
Year |
Average
Household Size |
Percent
Change |
Average
Household Size (New Calculation) |
Percent
Change |
|
|
|
1980 |
2.44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990 |
2.30 |
-5.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
2.22 |
-3.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
2.14 |
-3.5 |
1.89 |
|
|
|
|
2010 |
|
|
1.82 |
-3.5 |
|
|
|
2015 |
|
|
1.76 |
-3.5 |
|
|
|
2020 |
|
|
1.70 |
-3.5 |
|
|
|
2025 |
|
|
1.64 |
-3.5 |
|
Number
and Types of Housing Units
To
estimate the occupied housing units for 2025, population in households is
divided by the average household size. Determining the number of housing
units needed in 2020, requires assumptions about vacancy rates. Based on
2000 Census data, the vacancy rate for occupied units was 20 percent (or
an 80 percent occupancy rate). The year round vacancy rate was 8%.
The
historical vacancy rate has fluctuated drastically so no pattern could be
determined. In order to calculate needed housing units a standard vacancy
rate of 10% was assumed. This rate accounts for year round housing units
and seasonal units.
|
Vacancy
Rate |
|||||||
|
Year |
Total
Housing Units |
Seasonal
Housing Units |
Year
Round Housing Units |
Vacant
Housing Units |
Occupied
Housing Units |
Overall
Vacancy Rate including seasonal |
Vacancy
Rate of Year Round Housing |
|
1980 |
554 |
28 |
526 |
66 |
460 |
17.0% |
12.5% |
|
1990 |
559 |
73 |
486 |
20 |
466 |
16.6% |
4.1% |
|
2000 |
705 |
98 |
607 |
49 |
558 |
20.9% |
8.1% |
As
of January 2005, there were 859 dwelling units in
|
Calculating
Needed Housing Units |
|
|
2025
Coordinated Population Projection |
1,800 |
|
Group
Quarter Population |
0 |
|
Population
in Households |
1,800 |
|
Total
Occupied Housing Units 2025 Average Household Size (1.63) |
1105 |
|
Total
Housing unit 2025 Occupancy Rate (90%) |
1227 |
|
January,
2005 Number of Units |
859 |
|
2005-2025
Future Needed Housing Units |
368 |
STEP 2
Project the housing mix needed in the twenty years.
The
best indicators of housing needs are household characteristics such as
income, household size, age of head of household and household types.
These factors are important because certain household types tend to
choose certain housing types. The
changing composition of households will affect the demand for the
quantity, type, and cost of housing. For
example, households with young heads of household tend to be apartment
renters. Households with older
heads of household and higher incomes tend to own single-family houses.
Compared to
The
current housing mix in
|
EXISTING
HOUSING MIX 2004 |
||
|
Housing
Type |
Number
of Units |
2004
Percent of All Units |
|
Single
Family Detached |
771 |
89.0% |
|
Duplex |
2 |
1.0% |
|
Manufactured
Dwelling in Park |
86 |
10.0% |
|
Total |
859 |
100% |
As
shown earlier, the average household size in
Traditionally, a declining
household size suggests a need for some smaller sized housing. The
expected decrease in household size along with the increase in the age
of the head of household would indicate the need for smaller home
ownership opportunities, such as smaller sized homes and lots,
manufactured homes, and condominiums. However,
Household
Types
2000 Census shows
Number
of Households by Household Types
|
Household Type |
|
|
|
Family
Households |
74.2 % |
63.0 % |
|
with
related children under 18 |
18.3 |
28.5 |
|
Married Couple Family |
67.6 |
48.9 |
|
with related children |
15.4 |
19.6 |
|
Non-Family
Household |
25.8 |
37.0 |
|
Household
with individuals under 18 |
20.3 |
31.0 |
|
Household
with individuals 65 and over |
41.2 |
22.9 |
Source:
Age
of Head of Household
In
|
Household
by Age of the Head of Household, 2000 |
||||
|
|
|
|
||
|
Age |
Number |
Percent |
Number |
Percent |
|
15-24 |
5 |
0.9 |
11,722 |
9.0 |
|
25-34 |
25 |
4.5 |
20,690 |
15.9 |
|
35-44 |
71 |
12.7 |
25,009 |
19.2 |
|
45-54 |
122 |
21.9 |
28,477 |
21.8 |
|
55-64 |
130 |
23.3 |
17,050 |
13.1 |
|
65-74 |
118 |
21.1 |
13,289 |
10.2 |
|
75-84 |
78 |
14.0 |
10,844 |
8.3 |
|
85+ |
9 |
1.6 |
3,372 |
2.6 |
|
TOTAL |
558 |
100.0 |
130,453 |
100.0 |
|
Source:
|
|
|
||
The demand for traditional
single-family housing should remain relatively strong.
According to the 2000
The
2020 projections for

Source:
Median
Household Income
|
(in 1999 dollars) |
|
|
Area |
Median
Household Income |
|
|
$41,994
|
|
|
$40,916
|
|
|
$36,942
|
|
|
$39,100
|
Source:
|
Percent
of Persons Below Poverty Level |
|
|
Area |
Percent
of Persons Below Poverty |
|
|
12.4 |
|
|
11.6 |
|
|
14.4 |
|
|
10.6 |
Source:
Percent
of Income Paid for Housing
The table below shows how much
of a household’s income was needed to pay for housing expenses in 2000.
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD), if a household is paying more than 30 percent of its income for
housing, housing is a cost burden.
In
2000, these figures indicated that
2000
Percent of Income Paid for Housing
|
Owners
Paying |
Number of HHs |
Percent of HHs |
Number of HHs |
Percent of HHs |
|
Less
than 30% |
281 |
74.8 |
45650 |
74.9 |
|
More
than 30% |
95 |
24.8 |
14976 |
25.1 |
|
TOTAL |
376 |
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Renters
Paying |
Number of HHs |
Percent of HHs |
Number of HHs |
Percent of HHs |
|
Less
than 30% |
36 |
52.1% |
23262 |
47.9 |
|
More
than 30% |
24 |
34.7% |
22670 |
46.7 |
|
TOTAL |
60 |
86.8% |
|
|
Source:
In 2000, about 35% of
In 2000, about 25% of Dunes
City’s homeowners were paying more than 30% of their income on housing
costs, the same as Lane County as a whole.
Although not as big a problem as that faced by renters, there
still seems to be a need for more affordable home ownership
opportunities. Affordable
ownership options are typically met by manufactured homes in parks or
lots, duplexes or row houses, and small single-family homes.
Multi-family units can be sold as condominiums, although this
option has not yet been made available in
Housing costs have generally
increased more than incomes over the past two decades.
This trend may continue, although at a slower pace.
All
housing types are attainable to higher income households (>$50,000).
Below that level of household income, the choices become more
limited. An upper middle
income household ($30-50,000) can generally afford to purchase a new small
lot with cluster housing, or zero-lot line house, or manufactured homes.
Households with incomes lower than $30,000 have difficulty
purchasing a new home and must find affordable rentals.
Households with incomes less than $15,000 are often in need of
subsidized housing. Almost 40 percent of
|
|
|
|
|
1999
Household Income |
|
|
|
Source:
2000 Census Data |
|
|
|
Income
Category |
Number
of Households |
Percent
of Households |
|
Less
than $10,000 |
36 |
6.5% |
|
$10,000
to $14,999 |
60 |
10.8% |
|
$15,000
to $19,999 |
32 |
5.7% |
|
$20,000
to $24,999 |
42 |
7.5% |
|
$25,000
to $29,999 |
32 |
5.7% |
|
$30,000
to $34,999 |
41 |
7.3% |
|
$35,000
to $39,999 |
45 |
8.1% |
|
$40,000
to $44,999 |
11 |
2.0% |
|
$45,000
to $49,999 |
35 |
6.3% |
|
$50,000
to $59,999 |
67 |
12.0% |
|
$60,000
to $74,999 |
41 |
7.3% |
|
$75,000
to $99,999 |
55 |
9.9% |
|
$100,000
to $124,999 |
14 |
2.5% |
|
$125,000
to $149,999 |
10 |
1.8% |
|
$150,000
to $199,999 |
17 |
3.0% |
|
$200,000
or more |
20 |
3.6% |
|
Total |
558 |
100.0% |
Source:
Housing
Costs have generally increased more than incomes over the past two
decades. According to the National Association of Realtors this trends may
continue in
In
a report completed by Pacific Valuation Group in 2004 the median sales
price had increased 26% in the Florence MLS Area. This trend was a
continuation of rising sales prices which began in 2001. In addition to
rising sales prices average property values also increased about 12%. The
report states that older homes are appreciating much higher because there
is not enough supply to meet demand. A significant number of newer homes
are not being constructed to meet demand and the underlying increase in
land values has caused older home prices to increase. The analysis expects
prices will continue to increase until 2007 when there is expected to be
an adequate supply of developable land to meet demand.
“The
continuing trend of higher process being paid alongside higher sales
volume simply means purchasers of
A
local Real Estate agent in
There may be a demand for more
affordable housing (e.g., duplexes, mobile homes, small-lot single
family). However it is more likely the single-family detached home will
still predominate the housing market as the preferred option.
STEP 3
Estimate the number of additional needed units by housing type.
The
following housing types have been selected as a basis for this study:
·
Single-family
detached:
The conventional house on a lot surrounded by a yard.
·
Manufactured homes on lots are included
in this category.
·
Single-family
attached: Duplex
units.
·
Multi-Family:
3
or more attached units.
·
Manufactured
homes in parks: Each
home does not have an individual tax lot but rents a space in the park.
The manufactured home itself may be owned or rented.
|
Structure Type |
Existing Units (2005) |
Future Units (2025) |
Total Units (2005-2025) |
|||
|
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
|
SF-Detached |
771 |
89 |
368 |
100% |
1139 |
93 |
|
Duplex |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0% |
2 |
<1% |
|
Multi-Family |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
|
Mfd.
Homes in Park |
86 |
10 |
0 |
0% |
86 |
7% |
|
TOTAL |
859 |
100 |
368 |
100 |
1227 |
100 |
*Source: LCOG’s land
use data for
All housing units constructed in
No other housing type is
expected to be constructed. The last duplex unit was constructed in 1963
and no multi-family units have ever been constructed. The last mobile
home park was constructed in 1970 and no new parks are expected to be
developed or expanded.
STEP 4
Estimate the expected net density for each plan designation and the
average needed net density for all designations.
There is only one plan designation for
residential use in
|
Net
Density of Residential Units Built 1998-2004 |
|||
|
Housing
Type |
#
Units |
Number
of Acres |
Density
(units per acre) |
|
Single
Family Detached |
|
|
|
|
Stick
Built |
68 |
148.26 |
0.46 |
|
Mfd.
Home on |
17 |
28.09 |
0.61 |
|
Overall
Density |
85 |
176.35 |
0.48 |
The
CAC discussed projected density and felt it would increase. Two main
factors causing land to increase are lincrease in land prices and
maintaining rural character. Also difficult to develop a lot exactly one
acre in size because of environmental constraints and septic system
requirements. Therefore the CAC felt the density would remain lower than 1 dwelling unit
per acre but slightly higher than the average density of .48 dwelling
units per acre. The committee agreed on a .70 dwelling units per acre or I
dwelling unit for every 1.4 acres.
|
Projected
Density of Residential Units |
|||
|
Housing
Type |
#
of Needed Units |
Density
(units per acre) |
Needed
Acres |
|
Single
Family Detached |
363 |
0.48 |
756 |
|
Single
Family Detached |
363 |
0.70 |
519 |
When
the projected density is applied to the number of needed housing units
total acres are calculated. Applying the average density from 2008-2004 a
total of 756 acres is needed to meet housing units demanded. Applying the
projected density a total of 519 acres is needed to meet demand.
Assumption about future
development:
As land and housing prices
increase, average lot size will decrease as a way of keeping
single-family homes affordable.
Densities will remain low since
Septic system requirements will
increase land needed to develop a lot therefore keeping densities lower.
Large parcel 5 acres or more
will continue to be developed since the cost per acre is cheaper than
the available one acre lots.
Employment
Needs
Introduction
According
to OAR 66-009 employment forecasts are optional for all cities. All of the
Oregon Administrative Rules pertaining to Goal 9 do not apply to
Community
Economic Development Objectives/Policies
Comprehensive
Plan Policies and Guidelines
The
first Dunes City Comprehensive Plan was adopted by the City Council on
According
to the Comprehensive Plan, all commercial properties in
The
generally rural atmosphere of the City has attracted many senior citizens.
The figures below indicate that persons aged 60 or over account for
33 percent of the population and is approximately 16 percentage points
above
According
to the 2000 Census,
Following
are policies from the adopted Comprehensive Plan:
“Policy
G1.
Policy
G2. The City discourages strip
development.
Policy
G3. The retirement
industry shall be encouraged as the prime economic base of the city.
Policy
G4. Minor economic activities,
such as home occupations, will be permitted if they are not harmful to
air, water, or land quality, and if they are not potential nuisances to
neighboring uses.
The
following are economic factors from the Comprehensive Plan which are used
as a policy guide for regulating growth and change in
“Economic
Base:
Materials
and Energy:
Labor
Market: Since
According
to the 1990 Census data, there were 430 persons in the labor force (46.6%
of the population 16 and over), of which 25 were unemployed, indicating an
unemployment rate of 5.8 percent. The
unemployment rate for all of
Transportation:
Market
Forces: Because of
The
tourist source of income is mostly in dollars from out of the subarea and
out of state. According to the
Oregon Tourism Commission[1],
State
Employment Outlook
The
forecast indicates about 93% of
Sources:
2000 Regional Economic Profile (
After
a history of ups and downs related to lumber and wood products,
population
increases and income growth. This caused employment in the services
and
retail sectors to grow.
The
State’s employment projections for 2002-2012 indicate much less growth
than that
experienced
in the 1992 to 2002 period. The primary reason for this is a restricted
manufacturing
sector combined with slowing in-migration compared with the 1990s when
Sources:
Oregon Employment Department 2000 Regional Economic Profile (
Historical
Trends in Employment
Dunes
City 2002 Employment
|
Sectors (NAICS
Codes) |
Employees |
Percent
of Total |
|
Accommodation
Food Service |
3 |
9% |
|
Administrative
Support |
8 |
24% |
|
Arts,
Entertainment, Recreation |
1 |
3% |
|
Construction |
2 |
6% |
|
Manufacturing |
1 |
3% |
|
Other
Services |
8 |
24% |
|
Postal
Service |
2 |
6% |
|
Professional,
Scientific, Tech Svcs |
2 |
6% |
|
Public
Administration |
3 |
9% |
|
Real
Estate |
2 |
6% |
|
Wholesale
Trade |
2 |
6% |
|
TOTAL |
34 |
100% |
Source: Oregon Employment Department
|
Sectors (SIC
Codes) |
Employees |
Percent
of Total |
|
Construction |
5 |
12% |
|
Finance,
Insurance, Real Estate |
7 |
17% |
|
Postal
Service |
2 |
5% |
|
Public
Administration |
4 |
10% |
|
Services |
23 |
56% |
|
|
41 |
100% |
Source: Oregon Employment Department
Thirteen
of the seventeen firms identified in the 2002 employment data are located
on residential designated land in
Based
on the City’s desire to remain a place to live, not work and the
proportion of retirement population in the city, employment is most likely
not going to increase significantly or at all. Many of the goods and
services are provided by the nearby City of
Currently
in Dunes city there are 16.6 acres of Commercial designated land and of
these sixteen acres, 5 acres are vacant. The largest percent of commercial
land is either developed as General Commercial or Vacant. A large
percentage of commercial land is developed with residential uses.
Commercial
Designated Land and Land Use
Dunes
City UGB
|
Land
Use |
Acres |
Percent
of Total |
|
|
2.2 |
13.2 |
|
Recreation |
.5 |
3.0 |
|
Mfd.
Home on |
.3 |
1.8 |
|
General |
5.4 |
32.5 |
|
Retail |
.1 |
0.6 |
|
Single
Family Dwelling |
2.7 |
16.3 |
|
Vacant |
5.2 |
32.5 |
|
TOTAL |
16.2 |
100% |
Based
on the supply analysis there is a total supply of 4.3 acres of commercial
land after subtracting constrained land from gross vacant acres.
Redevelopment
Potential
Since
most of the employees in
Comparison
of Supply and Demand
Housing and Residential Land
Is
the existing supply of buildable land in
Based
on the projected demand and need for housing by type, and the expected net
densities by type, approximately 519 acres of residential land would be
needed to meet the demand for housing over the next 20 years.
Approximately 428 net buildable residential acres are available
within the Dunes City UGB. This
results in a deficit of approximately 91 acres. If 5 units, which were
identified as potential infill, are subtracted from the units needed,
there is an expected need of 358 housing units. This translates into 83
additional needed acres rather than 91.
|
Housing Types |
New Units Needed* |
Expected Net Density |
Net Acres Needed |
Net Buildable Residential Acres |
Additional Acres Needed |
|
Single-Family
Detached |
363 |
.70 |
519 |
428 |
91 |
|
Minus
5 infill lots (5 housing units) |
358* |
.70 |
511 |
428 |
83 |
*
After subtracting 5
units that are expected to be supplied through the infill process.
These are more than likely to be single-family units.