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This document summarizes the Residential and Commercial Buildable Land Inventory analysis for Dunes City Urban Growth Boundary. It addresses State Planning Goal 10, “To provide for the housing needs of citizens of the state.” Goal 10 and its administrative rules set out a process to estimate future housing needs and to analyze the supply and demand for residential land needed to accommodate future growth. Cities are required to provide a 20 year supply of residential and within their UGB at periodic review and legislative review, based on housing needs assessment.

This document addresses commercial land as far as updating the existing inventory. The focus of this document updates contains a housing needs analysis, an analysis of existing buildable land and a comparison of the supply of buildable residential land with forecasted housing demand. The housing need analysis forecasts housing demand to 2025. The supply analysis is based on buildable land as of 2005. In reviewing the future needs for land and the current supply within the urban growth boundary, it has been determined that there is not a 20-year supply of buildable residential land.

Buildable Lands Inventory

The future land needs of a community are determined by comparing the existing supply of land with the expected demand.  This chapter summarizes the methodology, assumptions, and results of Dunes City ’s Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI).  The inventory of buildable lands includes residential, commercial and open space land inside the city’s urban growth boundary (UGB).  Buildable land includes both vacant land and developed land that is likely to be redeveloped, and excludes land that is determined unbuildable by federal, state or local regulations.  The inventory is important for several reasons:

·        It helps determine the quantity and quality of vacant lands,

·        It helps identify how actual development patterns have been occurring, and

·        It helps determine the capacity of the UGB to accommodate residential and job growth.

The City of Dunes City has four plan designations.  The plan designations and associated zoning includes:

·        Commercial: Intended to provide convenience goods, personal services, and commercial goods to support the local economy and provide tourist commercial services. Accessible to Dunes City residents; Located on major street; should not be scattered, Not located on land with several development constraints; and avoid strip commercial development on Highway 101.

·        Residential: Intended to provide a variety of housing opportunities to meet housing needs. Single family units on 1 acre lots or larger; PUDS, including a variety of housing types and neighborhood commercial; Land already subdivided with lots smaller than one acre; Two-to-four family units, mobile homes and manufactured housing.

·        Open Space Lands: Those lands not suited for development because of natural development constraints or publicly owned lands designated as open space.

·        Public: Public and quasi public land, including part of the Boy Scout camp, state and county parks, and city facilities.

The methodology and assumptions for the Buildable Lands Inventory were reviewed by the Citizen Advisory Committee (CAC). A few adjustments were made to the original assumptions based on development trends. The Planning Commission reviewed the document and …..(will update after review).

There are some differences in the way residential and commercial lands were handled in the inventory process.  These differences are described in the methodology.  There are five general steps in the process that were used to estimate the amount of buildable land in Dunes City ’s UGB:

·        Update the land use and zoning in the computer geographic information system (GIS)

·        Determine gross vacant acres, including whole or partial tax lots

·        Determine constrained and unbuildable land

·        Determine percentage of acres needed for public facilities

·        Determine residential infill potential

·        Determine redevelopment potential

STEP 1            Update Land Use and Zoning in the GIS.

To update Dunes City ’s geographic data, the most recent land use data were plotted out and checked by staff, and field-checked by members of the CAC.  The field checking helped verify the actual use of the property, the location of newer roads and right-of-ways.  The geographic data for the city’s land use, zoning and plan designations were also updated at this time.

STEP 2            Determine Gross Vacant Acreage.

Gross vacant acres include all fully vacant tax lots, and the vacant portions of some partially developed lots.  Vacant lands include land uses that are coded as agricultural, timber, or vacant.  They do not contain any structures.  Partially vacant tax lots have improvements but also have enough undeveloped land to accommodate additional development.

Ø      Residential Land :  In some cases partially vacant lots were field-checked to determine the extent and location of the residential improvements.  The undeveloped portion of the lot was then added to the gross vacant acreage. When field checking was not practical, parcels over an acre in size were assigned one acre of residential use and the remainder assigned as vacant.

      In some cases the remaining acreage was less than one acre and was therefore removed from the gross vacant acreage since Dunes City requires a one acre minimum lot size for new development. This represents less than one percent about .3% (25 acres) of the gross vacant acres.

      Commercial: Partially vacant lots were field-checked to determine what, if any, portion of the tax lot should be assigned a vacant use code.  All improvements such as landscaped and paved areas were considered developed.

Gross Vacant Acres by Plan Designation

STEP 3            Determine Unbuildable and Constrained Lands.

Some lands are unbuildable outright, whereas others are constrained and potentially could be developed if the constraints were addressed.  The lands that are determined to be unbuildable are subtracted from the inventory.  The constrained lands are dealt with on a case by case basis.

Unbuildable Lands

Size: There are some parcels in the data file that are too small to be developed.  In most cases, these are “slivers” of land that result from data layers that do not match exactly.  For example, some plan designations may overlap onto a tiny portion of an adjacent tax lot of a different plan designation.  That overlapping piece will show up as a tiny parcel.

Floodways: The Flood Insurance Rate Map designates regulated floodways.  There were no areas identified within a floodway within Dunes City .

The following table summarizes the impact of the unbuildable lands on the inventory.

Unbuildable Vacant Acres by Plan Designation

Constrained Lands

Development of constrained land could affect the building cost, density, or other site-specific development factors.  State policy gives jurisdictions the right to decide what is unbuildable based on local development policies.  Dunes City ’s current policies allow development throughout the city.  However, there are several areas with development constraints.  Each constraint was discussed with the Citizen Advisory Committee.  The results of those discussions, and the resultant impact on the inventory, are included in this final draft.

The following describes how constraints were handled in the Buildable Lands Inventory:

The constraints identified for this study were:

• Flood Hazards
• Riparian Areas (shoreline)
• Delineated Wetlands from Local Wetland Inventory
• Slopes over 16%

Acres of constrained land include the total acres of all land containing any of the constraints identified. An area can include a single constraint or a combination of many constraints overlapping. Therefore, individual constrained land will not equal the sum of each individual constraint and its acres. Total acres where only one constraint was identified and the constraint's impact on the supply is discussed below.

Flood Hazards: The Flood Insurance Rate Map designates areas subject to a 1% or 100-year flood. Dunes City ’s Code of Ordinances regulates development in the floodplain through adoption by reference the most recent Flood Insurance Rate Maps.  Development in the flood hazard areas identified on FEMA maps must meet the requirements of floor elevation, anchoring, construction materials and methods, and utilities. Of the total 410 total acres identified as constrained (includes all constraints), 79 acres included floodplain with one or more constraints and 22 acres included only flood hazard for a total of 101 acres. Vacant land with floodplain only represents 2.5% of the gross vacant acres. The 22 acres where flood plain exits alone were not subtracted from gross vacant acres since the City allows development in the floodplain.

Ø      Wetlands: The Local Wetland Inventory completed in 2004 was used to determine the vacant land in the Dunes City UGB that falls within delineated wetlands.  Wetlands overlap with several of the constraints identified such as riparian area and 100 year flood zone –this accounted for 99 acres and wetlands on their own totaled 13 acres. In total there are 112 vacant acres with delineated wetlands.

Ø      Slope: Vacant land with slopes over16% was identified as a constraint to development. Development on slopes greater than 16% is permitted in Dunes City with documentation from a licensed Oregon Engineer which shows such development to be safe. Based on past development trends, the Citizen Advisory Committee estimated 60% of vacant sloped land can be expected to be developed. Of the 234 acres containing slopes and other constraints, 186 acres was identified as having slopes greater than 16% only. Of the 186 acres of sloped only land, 75 acres (40%) was subtracted from the inventory.

Availability of Services: Dunes City is not connected to city sewer or water and septic is dependant on lot size. The city requires a one acre minimum lot size to accommodate new septic and existing lots under an acre are permitted to be developed. Lot size has more impact on the inventory than availability of services. The impact of partially vacant acres on the inventory is discussed under infill and land less than one acre has already been subtracted from the inventory. Therefore, this constraint does not apply.

Constrained Vacant Acres by Plan Designation

NOTES: The percentages represent the percent of constrained vacant land within that plan designation.  For example, 22% of the vacant Residential land is constrained.

The following table summarizes the gross vacant buildable acres.  In total, approximately 289 acres were subtracted from the inventory to account for unbuildable lands and to address development constraint assumptions.

Gross Vacant Buildable Acres by Plan Designation

STEP 4            Determine Percentage of Acres Needed for Public Facilities

This step is relevant for larger undeveloped parcels.  When development occurs, a portion of the undeveloped parcel will be needed for roads, rights-of-way, and other public facilities.  Smaller parcels generally have access to existing roadways.  For this step, we estimated the percentage of land that will be needed for public facilities, and subtracted this from the larger parcels throughout Dunes City .  This process of subtraction converts gross acres to net acres, as described below.

Ø      Residential Land :  In general, there are more public facilities, such as churches, parks, and other public land, associated with residential land than commercial land.  Vacant or partially vacant parcels greater than 1 acre had 20% of the vacant land removed from the inventory to account for streets and non-residential uses.  For example, a ten-acre property with two acres of existing development would yield eight gross vacant acres.  Subtracting 20% would yield 6.4 net vacant acres.

Ø      Commercial Land :  While there are fewer public facilities associated with commercial land compared with residential land, there needs to be some accommodation for roadways to access the larger parcels.  Vacant or partially vacant parcels greater than five acres had 10% of the vacant acreage removed from the inventory to account for these public facilities.

In total, 132 acres were subtracted from the inventory to account for public facilities and non-residential uses.  The following table summarizes the differences between gross and net acres for each plan designation.

Net Buildable Acres by Plan Designation

STEP 5            Determine Infill Potential

Residential infill can occur when a lot with a single-family residence may be large enough to divide, creating one or more new lots.  This second process is called a partition if three or fewer lots are created out of the original lot; a subdivision if four or more lots are created.  This analysis focuses on infill occurring through the land division process.

To determine the potential for infill, the number of lots on which partitioning or subdividing could occur were identified from the 2005 Dunes City parcel file.  The minimum lot size for single-family residences in Dunes City is 1-acre.  Tax lots greater than or equal to 1-acre with one existing single-family, or manufactured dwelling were identified.  There were 11 lots that were considered developed in the buildable land analysis but have potential for partitioning.

To develop an assumption as to how many infill lots will be created in the 20 year period, partition activity was reviewed between 1998 and 2000.  During that period, there were seventeen approved partitions on residential tax lots an acre or more in size.  These partitions created 24 new lots.  There was an average of 4 new lots created per year.  If this historical trend were projected into the future, there would be approximately 60 additional buildable lots created through the infill process in the coming 20 years. However, only 11 lots exist with the potential to create 12 new 1-acre lots through the partition process. It is unlikely that all of the potential lots will be partitioned. Some lots may contain houses on lots greater than 2 acres where the house is in the middle of the lot which would prohibit a partition since the minimum 1-acre lot size could not be met.

Residential Infill Potential

STEP 6            Determine Redevelopment Potential

Redevelopable land is land on which development has already occurred but due to market forces or city policies, there is a strong likelihood that the existing development will be converted to, or replaced by, a new or more intensive use.  Redevelopment can occur if improvements, renovation, infill, or development of a more intensive use are feasible options.  The concept behind redevelopment is that it would add jobs or housing in an area that is already developed.  For example, a warehouse could be converted to an office building.  The office jobs would be added without development of vacant lots, and the number of office jobs would be greater than the jobs provided by the warehouse.  Another example is a dilapidated house on a corner lot that is torn down and replaced by a duplex.  Through redevelopment, an additional dwelling unit is added without requiring additional vacant land.

Property that is identified as having redevelopment potential, and is likely to be redeveloped, can be added to the inventory as buildable land.  Please note that we are talking about redevelopment potential.  The methodology identifies the quantity of redevelopment potential.  It does not identify any specific properties, nor require redevelopment on any particular property.

In Dunes City redevelopment of existing residential lots would result in zero gain of a housing unit. This is because there is only one residential plan designation. Dunes City is unlike larger cities in Lane County where there is potential for higher density development on existing developed lots. For example, if a single family home exists on a .5 acre Medium Density Residential lot that allows 10-20 dwelling units per parcel, this lot has a redevelopment potential of 5 to 10 dwelling units. In Dunes City if a single family home exists on a 1-acre or smaller residential lot it can only be replaced by a single family detached unit. If the lot is larger than 1 acre then there is potential for an additional dwelling unit however this land was already added to the inventory under the Infill assumptions discussed earlier.

The CAC thought redevelopment would most likely occur on existing mobile home lots. All mobile home lots in Dunes City are zoned commercial so have the potential to be redeveloped with residential or commercial uses. The largest mobile home park in Dunes City is approximately 3.5 acres. Based on the 1-acre lot size requirement the mobile home park would only accommodate 3 single family units or one duplex at the most.

Ø      Commercial Land :  In Dunes City , commercial redevelopment may have the most potential.  Given the small supply of commercial land to begin with and the fact that there has been very little commercial development except for home occupations, redevelopment will have a very small impact on the supply of commercial land. The criteria used to identify commercial  redevelopment potential include:

Redevelopment potential was discussed with the CAC.  There were 9 acres were identified where the value of the land was at least two times greater than the improvement value of the property or where the improvement to land value ratio was .49 or less. 

For the purposes of this analysis, up to 25% of the redevelopment potential on commercial land is expected to be realized in the 20-year timeframe.  This equals approximately 2.25 acres.

Projected Housing Needs

To project future housing demand, it is necessary to project the demand for a forecasted population. Housing demand was projected by reviewing and making assumptions about the trends in population, average household size, group quarter population, structure type mix, vacancy, tenure and household income.

2000-2025 Population Projections

Since 1990 Dunes City has been growing at a slightly higher rate than Lane County . Between 1990 and 2000 Dunes City has experienced an average annual growth rate of 1.39 percent while the County experienced a 1.3 percent annual average growth rate.   As with most cities in Lane County growth was very fast in the 1970 and non-existent during the 1980s.  The coordinated population projections for Lane County show Dunes City is likely to experience an even higher growth rate at 1.5 percent from 2000 to 2025 while Lane County is likely to experience a lower growth rate at .97 percent.

Dunes City Historical and Forecasted Population

* Estimated Population

** Forecasted Population

Source: US Census & Population Research Center at PSU

The Citizen Advisory Committee followed the steps outlined in the workbook, “Planning for Residential Growth,” to determine recent housing construction by type and density. This section compares these data to data on needed housing and density to see if housing measures are required. The following steps were taken to determine actual type and density of recent housing construction in order to use these data in subsequent planning for residential growth.

Step 1  Determine Time Period

Dunes City entered into its last periodic review in 1996/1997 and the revised Comprehensive Plan was adopted in September of 1997. For purposes of this analysis data was gathered from January 1998 to January 2005.

Step 2  Identify Types of Housing to Address

The Citizen Advisory Committee addressed the existing housing types in Dunes City . Currently, Dunes City does not have any existing multi-family housing units and therefore this unit type was not included in the analysis.

• Single-Family Detached
• Single-Family attached (Duplex)
• Manufactured Home on individual lots
• Manufactured Home in Parks

Step 3 Collect Data

LCOG worked with Dunes City staff to collect historical building permit data for the last 7 years. City staff verified that no new mobile home parks or spaces were constructed since 1998. Building permit data indicate there were a total of 84housing units constructed between 1998 and 2004. OF these units constructed, 68 units were single family homes and 17 units were manufactured homes on individual lots. City records and city staff verified there was no multi-family, duplex or mobile home park spaces constructed during the same time period. According to the CAC the only duplex in Dunes City was constructed in 1963 and the last mobile home park was built in 1970.

Step 4  Calculate the Mix of Housing Types

The predominant housing type recently constructed in Dunes City is the single family detached house and then the manufactured home on individual lots. Eighty percent of all housing constructed has been single family detached dwellings and twenty percent manufactured dwellings on individual lots.

Step 5  Calculate the average density of each housing unit type and the average actual net density of all housing units.

The single family homes that were added to the housing stock were built at an average of .48 homes per acre or one home for every 2 acres. Manufactured homes on lots were built at a higher density at .61 dwelling units per acre.

This section analyzes Dunes City ’s housing needs by type and density to provide the information needed to determine the amount of land needed for each housing type for the next 20 years. The housing needs analysis is a relatively complex task. The complexity of determining housing needs comes from consideration of past trends, projecting these trends into the future, and then trying to predict housing needs for Dunes City ’s future population.  The following four steps outline the process:

·        Project the number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years

·        Project the housing mix needed in the next twenty years

·        Estimate the number of additional housing units needed by type

·        Estimate the expected net density

STEP 1            Project the number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years.

The population projections for 2025 were described earlier in this chapter.  The methodology for converting population to housing units is described below.

Number of Households

To determine the number of households requiring individual housing in 2025, the number of persons in group quarter facilities and a projected average person per household must be determined. 

Group Quarters

Group quarters include facilities such as assisted living facilities, dormitories, correctional institutions, group homes, boarding houses, military facilities, juvenile institutions, and psychiatric hospitals.  The 2000 Census indicates that there are no group quarter facilities in Dunes City . For future years, the CAC assumed there would be no group quarter facilities constructed in Dunes City since the adjacent city of Florence would accommodate the need for this type of housing.

Average Household Size

Average household size has been declining both nationally and locally over the past 30 years and is expected to continue to decline.  The cause of the decline in household size is due to a variety of factors including lower fertility rates, increased divorce rate, and delayed marriages.  During the 1990s, the baby boom generation, which constitutes a large proportion of the population, is at the highest household formation ages.  As the baby boom generation ages, they will move into ages that typically have smaller household size.

Census data indicates the average household size in Dunes City has followed the national and local trends.  The average household size in Dunes City has consistently been lower than Lane County . 2000 Census shows Dunes City has a much higher percentage of household where the head of household is over 50 years of age. In Dunes City 60 percent of households are headed by someone over 50 years old while this percentage is 34 for Lane County . The percentage of households where the head of household is over 65 years of age is twice as high in Dunes City compared to Lane County . The age distribution of Dunes City population as well as the City’s desire to remain a retirement community indicates household size will continue to decrease. The household size in Dunes City will most likely remain much lower than Lane County as a whole.

For this analysis, it is assumed that average household size will continue to decline. IF the average household size continued to decline at a rate of 3.5% in 2005 the average household size is 2.14 persons per household. However, the CAC felt this number was not accurate. Based on available data the average household size for 2005 is 1.89 persons per household. This figure was arrived at my taking the coordinated population estimate for 2004 of 1300 divided by the total number of housing units of 859 as of December 31, 2004 times an occupancy rate of 80%. If a 3.5% change were applied until the year 2025, the average household size would be 1.64 in the year 2025.

It is likely the average household size would be significantly lower in Dunes City than Lane County since Dunes City is comprised of a much older population.

Household size is inversely proportional to housing unit demand – the smaller the household size, the higher the number of housing units will be needed to house a given population.

Dunes City :  Persons Per Household

Number and Types of Housing Units

To estimate the occupied housing units for 2025, population in households is divided by the average household size. Determining the number of housing units needed in 2020, requires assumptions about vacancy rates. Based on 2000 Census data, the vacancy rate for occupied units was 20 percent (or an 80 percent occupancy rate). The year round vacancy rate was 8%.

The historical vacancy rate has fluctuated drastically so no pattern could be determined. In order to calculate needed housing units a standard vacancy rate of 10% was assumed. This rate accounts for year round housing units and seasonal units.

As of January 2005, there were 859 dwelling units in Dunes City . To calculate the number of housing units demanded in the year 2025 the projected total occupied housing units is divided by the occupancy rate. The existing number of units in 2005 is then subtracted from this figure for the number of future needed housing units.

STEP 2            Project the housing mix needed in the twenty years.

The best indicators of housing needs are household characteristics such as income, household size, age of head of household and household types.  These factors are important because certain household types tend to choose certain housing types.  The changing composition of households will affect the demand for the quantity, type, and cost of housing.  For example, households with young heads of household tend to be apartment renters.  Households with older heads of household and higher incomes tend to own single-family houses.  Compared to Lane County , Dunes City ’s population is older and has fewer families with children resulting in a smaller household size and predominantly single family dwellings.

Current Housing Mix

The current housing mix in Dunes City is predominantly single family detached. These include manufactured homes on individual lots. Only one duplex and no multi-family units have been constructed since 1963.

Household Size

As shown earlier, the average household size in Dunes City has been declining since 1970. The trend follows the local and national trends. For this analysis the projected household size for 2025 is projected to decrease to 1.63 persons per household.  Smaller household size means that more housing would be needed to accommodate a given population size.

Household Types

2000 Census shows Dunes City has a higher percentage of married couple family households than Lane County but a lower percentage of these households are with children 18 and under. The percentage of households with a householder 65 years or older is twice as high as Lane County .

Number of Households by Household Types

                           Source:  U.S. Census

Age of Head of Household

In Dunes City the percent of households where the head of household is 55 years of age or older is almost twice as high as Lane County . Of these households Dunes City has almost two times as many 65 year and older headed households.

Age Distribution

According to the 2000 Census Dunes City has a larger percentage of older people and a lower percentage of younger people than Lane County as a whole. Almost half of the population in Dunes City is 55 years of age or older. In Lane County this number is 22 percent. The median age in Dunes City is much older than Lane County ’s as a whole. The median age of Dunes City population is 53.1 while Lane County ’s is 36.6, a sixteen year difference.

The 2020 projections for Lane County ’s age distribution indicate an increase in people 55 and older. Since the County is projected to have an older population in the future and Dunes City trends indicate the population is even older than Lane County ’s it is likely that Dunes City ’s percentage of population 55 and older will increase.

Source:  U.S. Census

Income

Median Household Income

Dunes City is generally a higher income community than Lane County as a whole. The 2000 Census indicates Dunes City ’s median household income was 105 percent of Lane County ’s, and 95 percent of the State’s. 

                                                Source:  U.S. Census

Poverty

Dunes City also had a lower percentage of persons in poverty than Lane County, Oregon and the U.S.   About 11% of Dunes City residents lived in poverty in 2000. 

                                       Source:  U.S. Census

Percent of Income Paid for Housing

The table below shows how much of a household’s income was needed to pay for housing expenses in 2000.  According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), if a household is paying more than 30 percent of its income for housing, housing is a cost burden. 

In 2000, these figures indicated that Dunes City renters were relatively better off than county renters as a whole and Dunes City homeowners were as well off as homeowners in all of Lane County .  When a monthly budget is already stretched to meet rent or mortgage payments, the household members are not likely to be able to accumulate adequate savings to tide them over during times of crisis.  There are two potential solutions.  One is to increase household income; the other solution is to provide more low-cost housing. 

2000 Percent of Income Paid for Housing

                                                                Dunes City                    Lane County

                     Source:  U.S. Census. Some percentages were not computed for renters

Housing Costs

Housing costs have generally increased more than incomes over the past two decades.  This trend may continue, although at a slower pace.

All housing types are attainable to higher income households (>$50,000).  Below that level of household income, the choices become more limited.  An upper middle income household ($30-50,000) can generally afford to purchase a new small lot with cluster housing, or zero-lot line house, or manufactured homes.  Households with incomes lower than $30,000 have difficulty purchasing a new home and must find affordable rentals.  Households with incomes less than $15,000 are often in need of subsidized housing. Almost 40 percent of Dunes City household income is $50,000 or more and 24 percent households are considered upper middle class but there still is a significant portion of households (23%) whose income would reflect the need for subsidized housing. However, since the population in Dunes City is significantly older than Lane County as a whole, it is difficult to say what portion of households with lower incomes are headed by a person 65 years of age or older where housing costs, such as a mortgage, are no longer an issue since older householders most likely have paid off their homes.  

                              Source: U.S. Census

Housing Costs have generally increased more than incomes over the past two decades. According to the National Association of Realtors this trends may continue in Lane County , although at a slower pace.

In a report completed by Pacific Valuation Group in 2004 the median sales price had increased 26% in the Florence MLS Area. This trend was a continuation of rising sales prices which began in 2001. In addition to rising sales prices average property values also increased about 12%. The report states that older homes are appreciating much higher because there is not enough supply to meet demand. A significant number of newer homes are not being constructed to meet demand and the underlying increase in land values has caused older home prices to increase. The analysis expects prices will continue to increase until 2007 when there is expected to be an adequate supply of developable land to meet demand.

“The continuing trend of higher process being paid alongside higher sales volume simply means purchasers of Florence real estate are more affluent than ever.” The increase in prices over the past 3 years has had a negative effect on renters. Landlords now have more financial incentive to sell their rental property than continue to rent property. This greatly affects lower income residents (mostly low wage service jobs or tourism related jobs) in Florence where wages have not increased in proportion to home prices.

A local Real Estate agent in Dunes City , John Scott, indicated land prices in Dunes City have increased dramatically in 2005. For instance in 2004 a one acre, lake-front lot cost between $220-225,000. This equals approximately $5 a square foot. Today a lake front piece of property is selling for approximately $22 a square foot, four times more expensive than in 2004. Lots off the lake are selling for approximately $6 a square foot or about $261,000 and acre. Lake front 5 acre parcels are selling less per square foot for about $595,000 and off the lake front for about $375,000. The increase in property values indicates more expensive single family homes are likely to be constructed on these lots rather than less expensive rental properties.

STEP 3            Estimate the number of additional needed units by housing type.

The following housing types have been selected as a basis for this study:

·        Single-family detached:  The conventional house on a lot surrounded by a yard.

·        Manufactured homes on lots are included in this category.

·        Single-family attached: Duplex units.

·        Multi-Family: 3 or more attached units.

·        Manufactured homes in parks:  Each home does not have an individual tax lot but rents a space in the park.  The manufactured home itself may be owned or rented.

Dunes City Residential Units by Housing Type

           *Source:  LCOG’s land use data for Dunes City

STEP 4            Estimate the expected net density for each plan designation and the average needed net density for all designations.

There is only one plan designation for residential use in Dunes City .  The following table shows the existing and projected housing unit densities by structure type. Multi-family and manufactured homes in parks were not included in the calculation since no units are projected for 2025.

The CAC discussed projected density and felt it would increase. Two main factors causing land to increase are lincrease in land prices and maintaining rural character. Also difficult to develop a lot exactly one acre in size because of environmental constraints and septic system requirements. Therefore the CAC felt the density would remain lower than 1 dwelling unit per acre but slightly higher than the average density of .48 dwelling units per acre. The committee agreed on a .70 dwelling units per acre or I dwelling unit for every 1.4 acres.

When the projected density is applied to the number of needed housing units total acres are calculated. Applying the average density from 2008-2004 a total of 756 acres is needed to meet housing units demanded. Applying the projected density a total of 519 acres is needed to meet demand.

Employment Needs

Introduction

According to OAR 66-009 employment forecasts are optional for all cities. All of the Oregon Administrative Rules pertaining to Goal 9 do not apply to Dunes City for this analysis since the population is less than 2,500 persons. However this section accomplishes many of the Goal 9 requirements. This section updates the existing commercial land inventory, summarizes local employment trends and economic development objectives for Dunes City .

Community Economic Development Objectives/Policies

Comprehensive Plan Policies and Guidelines

The first Dunes City Comprehensive Plan was adopted by the City Council on September 9, 1976 .  The Comprehensive Plan was reviewed by the Land Conservation and Development Commission. To ensure that the Plan continued to meet Statewide Planning Goals, it was reviewed and updated in 1978, 1985 and in 1996.

According to the Comprehensive Plan, all commercial properties in Dunes City have existed since before the City was incorporated in 1963.  Some are 40 years older than the City.  The City wishes to maintain the commercial areas as they are and when expansion is desired the city will consider expansion through zone change requests for the creation of new commercial properties.

The generally rural atmosphere of the City has attracted many senior citizens.  The figures below indicate that persons aged 60 or over account for 33 percent of the population and is approximately 16 percentage points above Lane County 's average, suggesting a large percentage of retirees in Dunes City . 

According to the 2000 Census, Dunes City 's prime labor market population (age 20-54) accounts for 36 percent of the population, a decrease from the 40 percent reported in 1990, while the 0-19 school-age population represents 18 percent of the population, a slight decrease from 19.6 percent in 1990.  The large percentage of senior citizens has had a stabilizing effect in that their demands for schools, police, and other public services are low, while their income is steady.

Dunes City desires to maintain its rural character and as a place to live not work, “Economic development is unwanted by the populace.” Rather than demand for services, there is a widespread desire to be left alone.  According to one survey conducted by the City about 60 percent of the people surveyed were against encouraging growth, 12 percent wanted limited growth, and 20 percent favored growth.  However, a large majority believe that the city will grow.

Following are policies from the adopted Comprehensive Plan:

“Policy G1.   Dunes City and its residents should take an active interest in maintaining and improving the economic health of the region, including continued participation with the Lane Economic Committee.

Policy G2.  The City discourages strip development.

Policy G3.   The retirement industry shall be encouraged as the prime economic base of the city.

Policy G4.  Minor economic activities, such as home occupations, will be permitted if they are not harmful to air, water, or land quality, and if they are not potential nuisances to neighboring uses.  Dunes City does not seek industries to locate in the city.”

The following are economic factors from the Comprehensive Plan which are used as a policy guide for regulating growth and change in Dunes City with updated 2000 Census information.

“Economic Base:  Dunes City is a community to live in, not to work in.  According to 1990 Census data, a substantial majority of the labor force work in Florence , Gardiner, and Reedsport.  According to the 1990 Census, senior citizens (persons 60 or over) comprised 33 percent of the population.  There are no industries in Dunes City .  Several resorts and other tourist commercial businesses provide some jobs.

Materials and Energy:  Dunes City has no special advantage in regard to raw materials or supply of energy.  Timber is the only raw material in the city.  No intermediate goods used in the production of other goods are produced in the city.  Electricity is supplied by Central Lincoln Peoples' Utility District.

Labor Market:  Since Dunes City had only about 1,220 people in 1995, with a large percentage of retired persons, the labor market is too small to draw any kind of industry.  On the other hand, Dunes City is only five miles from Florence where half of Dunes City 's work force is employed.

According to the 1990 Census data, there were 430 persons in the labor force (46.6% of the population 16 and over), of which 25 were unemployed, indicating an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent.  The unemployment rate for all of Lane County for 1990 was 7.1 percent.  In more recent data, the Census Shared Disaggregation method, a method based on county trends, indicated a 1995 unemployment rate of 4.0 percent in Dunes City .

Transportation:  Dunes City , though located on Highway 101, is by no means a transportation hub.  Both Florence to the north and Reedsport to the south have trucking, rail, and port facilities.  Both of these larger cities are located on Highway 101 with connections to Interstate 5.

Market Forces:  Because of Dunes City 's small population and remote location, there is no reason to expect that industry would desire to locate here.

The tourist source of income is mostly in dollars from out of the subarea and out of state.  According to the Oregon Tourism Commission^[1], West Lane County received over $82 million in travel expenditures in 1994.  Travel expenditures in West Lane County increased steadily from 1991 to 1994, at an average annual rate of 4.1 percent.”

State Employment Outlook

Oregon ’s employment growth is expected to slow, but not decline. The fastest growing manufacturing sectors are expected to be transportation equipment manufacturing, and electronic and other equipment manufacturing.  Projections call for declines in food processing and lumber and wood products.  The fastest growing non-manufacturing sectors will continue to be found within services, especially business services, social services, and private education.

The forecast indicates about 93% of Oregon ’s net employment increase will be in the non-manufacturing industries.  Forty-four percent of this gain is projected to be in services, while another 25% will originate in wholesale and retail trade.

Sources: 2000 Regional Economic Profile ( Oregon ); Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, Oregon Department of Administrative Services, June 2001

Lane County Employment Outlook

After a history of ups and downs related to lumber and wood products, Lane County ’s industry mix diversified in the 1990s. After the recession of the early ‘90s, Lane County attracted such high-tech companies as PSC Scanning and Hynix, formerly Hyundai Electronics. In addition, a homegrown recreational vehicle manufacturing industry expanded toward the end of the decade. With growth in high-paying jobs came

population increases and income growth. This caused employment in the services

and retail sectors to grow.

Lane County is expected to add 17,500 jobs for a 12.4 percent increase in nonfarm payroll employment between 2002 and 2012. This compares with statewide growth of 13.7 percent.

The State’s employment projections for 2002-2012 indicate much less growth than that

experienced in the 1992 to 2002 period. The primary reason for this is a restricted

manufacturing sector combined with slowing in-migration compared with the 1990s when Oregon ’s economy was strong relative to California ’s.

Sources: Oregon Employment Department 2000 Regional Economic Profile ( Lane County )

Historical Trends in Employment

Dunes City has a very small number of businesses and employees. Between 1996 and 2002, the last two releases of covered employment figures, Dunes City lost a total of seven employees even though there was an increase in the total number of small businesses. In 1996 fourteen businesses existed and in 2002 there were a total of seventeen businesses. Of the fourteen businesses from 1996, five of those still exist today; they include Dunes City , US Postal Service, Darlings Resort, and Woahink Lake Resorts. Based on a windshield survey conducted by the CAC, five of seventeen businesses existing in 2002 have since closed.

Dunes City 2002 Employment

                                    Source: Oregon Employment Department

Dunes City 1996 Employment

                                 Source: Oregon Employment Department

Thirteen of the seventeen firms identified in the 2002 employment data are located on residential designated land in Dunes City .  These businesses are generally self-employed individuals working from home or are mobile homes parks. A Resident working from home is considered a home occupation and can locate on residential property through a permit process.

Based on the City’s desire to remain a place to live, not work and the proportion of retirement population in the city, employment is most likely not going to increase significantly or at all. Many of the goods and services are provided by the nearby City of Florence further reducing the demand to locate new businesses in Dunes City .

Commercial Land Supply

Currently in Dunes city there are 16.6 acres of Commercial designated land and of these sixteen acres, 5 acres are vacant. The largest percent of commercial land is either developed as General Commercial or Vacant. A large percentage of commercial land is developed with residential uses.

Commercial Designated Land and Land Use

Dunes City UGB

Based on the supply analysis there is a total supply of 4.3 acres of commercial land after subtracting constrained land from gross vacant acres.

Redevelopment Potential

Since most of the employees in Dunes City are located on residential land it appears there will be sufficient commercial land to accommodate commercial growth in Dunes City . Approximately 9 commercial acres were identified with redevelopment potential and 25% of that land (2.25 acres) was expected to be redeveloped over the 20 year time period. 

Comparison of Supply and Demand

Is the existing supply of buildable land in Dunes City sufficient to meet the expected demand?  To determine if there is enough land within the UGB, buildable and infill land must be compared with the future needed housing units forecasted for 2025.

Based on the projected demand and need for housing by type, and the expected net densities by type, approximately 519 acres of residential land would be needed to meet the demand for housing over the next 20 years.  Approximately 428 net buildable residential acres are available within the Dunes City UGB.  This results in a deficit of approximately 91 acres. If 5 units, which were identified as potential infill, are subtracted from the units needed, there is an expected need of 358 housing units. This translates into 83 additional needed acres rather than 91.

*    After subtracting 5 units that are expected to be supplied through the infill process.  These are more than likely to be single-family units.